Interesting Facts about the Election Campaign

No Comments

With the UK parliamentary election taking place today Speedy has decided to look at some of the interesting aspects of the 2017 campaign.

 

Parties still seem to run into trouble with their manifestos.

Manifestos are a curious thing. Much is made of them during an election campaign, but changing realities and political climates often make them outdated the moment a party forms the Government.  That being said, they can come back to haunt a party as the Liberal democrats found out after backtracking on a promise to oppose the raising of tuition fees in 2010.  This election campaign Theresa May found herself almost immediately running into problems.

Her party’s plan to make elderly people requiring care at home liable for the costs – apart from £100,000, which they could keep – proved controversial.

The policy, which would delay people’s payment from their estates until after they died, It meant some people – and many typical Tory voters – would not be able to pass their home on to their children.

It took Mrs May just four days – and lots of negative reaction – to add that there would be a cap to the amount of money one person would pay for care.

There had been no mention of a limit in the manifesto and ministers had publically rejected the idea. But the prime minister denied claims of a U-turn.

Some light hearted advice from Professor of politics John Curtice at Strathclyde University was not to make up manifesto policies on the hoof.

 

It helps to know the facts….and people’s names

The best part of election campaigns (for the public at least) are always the gaffs.

For any politician who has a live broadcast interview, preparation – and knowledge of your party’s policies – is essential.

Two gaffes stand out. Shadow home secretary Diane Abbott mixed-up her numbers in an interview with LBC’s Nick Ferrari, while party leader Jeremy Corbyn stumbled over the cost of Labour’s plan for free childcare on BBC Radio 4’s Woman’s Hour, managing only “a lot”.

It was names that proved tricky during the ITV leaders’ debate for UKIP leader Paul Nuttall.

He called Plaid Cymru’s Leanne Wood “Natalie” twice, despite there being no Natalie on the panel.

Sadly nothing quite so incendiary as John Prescott lashing out at an egg-throwing member of the public, but it’s not over yet.

 

Two party Politics is back for most of us

Historically the Conservatives and Labour have commanded the majority share of the vote in general elections, with smaller parties not getting much of a look-in. Indeed in 1951 and 1955 between them Labour and the Conservatives accounted for over 95% of the vote.

Then, in 2010, we had a coalition government with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, as neither of the two larger parties could command a majority.

And in 2015, nearly four million people voted for UKIP. This secured only one MP but the party achieved 12.6% of the popular vote, putting it third behind the Conservatives and Labour.

For a while, it looked like the era of two-party politics might be on the decline.

But then UKIP lost 145 councillors in May’s local elections in England and Wales. UKIP voters are turning to the Tories now that Brexit is on.

The Lib Dems don’t seem to have made much of a recovery from their 2015 losses, leaving the Tories and Labour the only real contenders.

However it is important not to forget the impact of the SNP in Scotland.

Two-party politics is only back in England and Wales – not in Scotland, and as a result there will still be a lot of third party MPs in the next parliament.

 

This is the ‘Theresa May’ campaign

 

Battle buses are the key staple of any good election campaign, but this year they appear to tell a tale.

The Conservative Party battle bus is all about “Theresa May”, while many of the party’s campaign signs read “Theresa May’s Team”.

As the Telegraph’s Parliamentary sketchwriter, Michael Deacon notes, the Tory campaign has a “downright presidential focus on leader rather than party”.

In contrast, Labour’s battle bus focuses on the party – rather than their leader Jeremy Corbyn – and some election leaflets are the same.

“Jeremy does not go down well with our core Labour support,” says Newcastle-under-Lyme Labour candidate Paul Farrelly, who does not put Mr Corbyn on his leaflets.

However it is not unheard of for parties to use their leader in an all-encompassing way,

In the 1945 election, the Conservatives knew they were not popular – but they also knew that Winston Churchill was incredibly popular, so they actually called their manifesto “Mr Churchill’s Declaration of Policy”.

However it did not work. Mr Churchill lost in a landslide to Labour (and their less bombastic leader Mr Atlee).

 

More Women than ever are running

About 30% of candidates are women – up from the previous record of 26% in 2015, although the actual number of women standing is down from 1,036 to 983.

There are, however, fewer candidates overall standing – about 3,300 compared to 3,971 in 2015.

But about 7.5 million people will not be able to vote for a woman as more than 100 constituencies across the UK have no female candidate on the ballot.

There is one seat where it is impossible to elect a man to Parliament: Glasgow Central has four names on the ballot – all are women.

 

Labour has done better than expected

When Mrs May called this snap election, the Conservative Party was ahead in the polls by some way.

But Labour has been closing the gap.

However, senior elections and political analyst Peter Barnes warns there are still quite large differences between the pollsters’ figures.

And as we learned in 2015, the polls can be wrong.

Almost all of the pollsters have changed their methods since then, but we won’t know how successfully until 8 June.

 

Young people can make a difference

Young people prefer Labour over the Conservatives, according to opinion polls, but the majority don’t vote.

If 18-24-year-olds turned out to vote as much as over 65 year olds, that could result in five to 10 seats transferring from Conservative to Labour.

That might not sound like a lot, but in a tight election such as 2015, it could make a big difference.

As the Tories ended up with a majority of only 12 seats, any changes could have led to minority government or another coalition.

 

Ethnic Minorities are under-represented by London candidates

About 50% of London constituencies have no Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) candidates in the five main parties.

Also five of the consistencies with no BAME candidates have a population of more than 50% BAME.

 

The Election isn’t all about Brexit

Half of Britain’s adults see Brexit as the most important issue in the UK, a poll by Ipsos Mori suggested before the snap election was called.

The Liberal democrats have centered their campaign around the issue of Brexit, offering a second referendum on a deal, as have the Green party.

But Prof Stephen Fisher, from Oxford University, says: “Most people who voted Remain are not desperate for a second referendum.”

According to a YouGov survery published earlier this month, 23% of people questioned were classed as “Re-Leavers” – those who voted to Remain in the EU but think that the government has a duty to leave, and 45% were “Hard Leavers” who want out.

That left only 22% of people who were “Hard Remainers” – those who want to stop Brexit – and 9% who didn’t know

So it might not be the Brexit election after all.

Speedy blog

We post information which we think will be of interest to you

Request a free quote

We can provide bespoke pricing for large organisations with over 100 staff or if you have any special requirements.

More from our blog

See all posts
No Comments

Recent Posts

 

Leave a Comment